The U.S. Hotel Industry's 2026 Forecast Just Got a Surprise Upgrade

CoStar and Tourism Economics just delivered a major upgrade to the U.S. hotel industry's 2026 outlook, raising their revenue-per-available-room growth projection from 0.6 percent to 2.8 percent — a nearly fivefold increase that signals a much stronger year than analysts originally expected.

The revised numbers, presented at the NYU International Hospitality Investment Forum in New York, reflect strengthening demand across all hotel segments. Both leisure and business travel are proving more durable than forecasters predicted at the start of the year.

For resort travelers, the upgrade carries a clear message: expect tighter availability and firmer pricing this summer. Popular all-inclusive destinations like Cancun, Punta Cana, and Jamaica typically see occupancy spike during peak summer months, and stronger-than-expected industrywide demand could make last-minute bookings harder to find.

Hotel CEOs at the same event expressed cautious optimism. Hilton CEO Chris Nassetta described the current environment as "highly stimulative," pointing to economic factors driving spending across income levels — not just at the high end. Hyatt CEO Mark Hoplamazian said leisure travel has remained "extremely strong" among higher-end travelers, creating durable demand.

The FIFA World Cup, hosted across multiple U.S. cities this summer, is expected to provide an additional boost to domestic hotels. International bookings for the tournament have tracked below initial expectations, but domestic leisure travel should fill any gaps, according to industry leaders.

One headwind tempers the good news: inflation is squeezing profit margins despite the revenue growth. Hotels are bringing in more money, but rising costs for labor, food, and energy are cutting into returns. For travelers, this likely means higher nightly rates at resorts across Mexico and the Caribbean.

Travelers eyeing summer all-inclusive packages from brands like Sandals and Royalton in the Riviera Maya or Caribbean should book sooner rather than later — the data suggests this summer's demand will outpace what most forecasters saw coming.